Comparative urban environmental impacts: private gasoline cars, SAVs, and electric SAVs

This study compares the environmental impacts of three urban transport scenarios: private gasoline vehicles, gasoline-powered shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs), and electric SAVs. Using deterministic modelling, Monte Carlo simulation (5000 iterations), analysis of variance, and t-tests, the authors quantify per-capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions under varying occupancy, fuel consumption, and grid carbon intensity. Private gasoline cars with low occupancy (1.2 persons/vehicle) produce ≈15 000 g carbon dioxide per 100 km. Gasoline SAVs reduce emissions by ≈66% due to higher occupancy (2.5 persons) and better fuel efficiency. Electric SAVs achieve as low as 640 g carbon dioxide per 100 km, a 96% reduction against private gasoline vehicles, including indirect grid emissions (200 g CO2/kWh). Sensitivity analysis shows gasoline SAVs depend on fuel use and occupancy, while electric SAVs depend primarily on grid carbon intensity. Limitations include fixed occupancy assumptions, idealised routeing, empty-vehicle miles exclusion, and missing upstream emissions for gasoline vehicles. Full life-cycle assessment is absent. Nevertheless, combining shared mobility with electrification offers maximum urban transport decarbonisation, providing actionable insights for policymakers.