Levels, trends, and determinants of fertility intentions in Tehran, Iran: the role of educational aspirations, life-course factors, and contextual influences

BACKGROUND: Life-course factors, including parity, are well linked to fertility. However, the moderating role of educational aspirations, controlling for confounders, remains unclear. This study examines how educational aspirations, alongside life-course, normative, and contextual factors, shape fertility intentions in urban Tehran. METHODS: Guided by an integrated conceptual framework and using data from the 2025 Tehran Survey of Fertility Intentions (n = 1,999 married women < 45), this study employs descriptive and bivariate analyses to examine fertility intention patterns and multinomial logistic regression to identify key determinants. Trends are assessed using age-matched data from a 2012 survey of women < 36. RESULTS: Overall, 78% of respondents either intended to stop childbearing or were uncertain. Short-term intentions were concentrated among younger and childless women, while older and higher-parity women mainly intended to stop. Between 2012 and 2025, short-term intentions rose slightly, stopping declined, and uncertainty increased. Multivariate results show that age and parity increase the odds of stopping or uncertainty (vs. intending another child), while later age at marriage reduces both. Educational aspirations have no direct effect but attenuate parity effects on stopping (OR = 0.53; CI: 0.38-0.75) and uncertainty (OR = 0.51; CI: 0.32-0.79). Higher religiosity is associated with lower stopping intentions. Living in middle- and high-status districts increases stopping, while middle-status districts are associated with greater uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Fertility intentions in Tehran are polarized, with considerable uncertainty at early parities shaped by life-course dynamics and future aspirations. Policies should prioritize early childbearing transitions and better align education, employment, and family formation rather than relying solely on pronatalist incentives.