Experts expect European agroforestry systems to stabilize crop yields under climate change

Abstract Climate change is having an impact on European agricultural systems and will increasingly do so into the future. Agroforestry, the integration of trees or shrubs in agricultural production systems, has been repeatedly described as a productive, sustainable, and resilient approach to food production. Quantifying agricultural benefits of agroforestry in the context of resilience to current and future climate change in Europe is challenging. To fill this knowledge gap, we gathered the assessments of 60 experts on the resilience of different forms of agroforestry (silvoarable, silvopastoral, and systems with hedgerows, riparian buffer strips, and windbreaks) in diverse European regions to various climate change variables. Across all regions and independently of the agroforestry system type, agroforestry systems were observed to show stable yields (0% change in yield compared to −8% in non-agroforestry systems). Experts expected yields in non-agroforestry to decline by 20% until 2050, while agroforestry systems were expected to maintain stable yields (0% change). This gap was highest in Central and Eastern Europe. In north-western and northern Europe, small yield increases were expected in agroforestry systems. Silvopastoral, silvoarable, and systems with hedgerows, riparian buffer strips, and windbreaks were similar in terms of observed and expected yield changes. The quality of saleable agricultural products until 2050 was estimated to be reduced in non-agroforestry systems, particularly in arable and hedgeless systems. Heavy precipitation events, prolonged drought, late frost, summer heat waves, and hail were the main threats by climate change–related threats listed by experts. Our online expert study is a novel approach to quantify agricultural benefits and emphasizes a general resilience of agroforestry systems to climate change impacts, regardless of the exact system type and climate region.