The Earth's "Long Chord" and "Lever": A Spatiotemporal Correlation Test for Cross-Scale Remote Earthquake Triggering ——A Tripartite Hypothesis Based on Antipodal Focusing, Plate-Margin Symmetric-End Stress Transfer, and Slow Slip Mediation, with a Un

Traditional seismology largely confines significant earthquake triggering effects to the near field (within a few rupture lengths). This study proposes the Tripartite Spatiotemporal Triggering Hypothesis (TSTH), which categorizes the far-field effects of large earthquakes into three mechanisms according to spatial scale and response time lag: ① Antipodal Resonance (~20,000 km, days to months, mediated by PKP‑wave caustic focusing and free oscillations); ② Plate‑Margin Symmetric‑End Stress Transfer (>1,000 km, 1–3 years, mediated by slow slip events and plate‑margin relay transfer); and ③ Conventional Plate‑Margin Compressional Transfer (<1,000 km, weeks to 1 year, mediated by Coulomb stress changes). The intervening range (1,000–5,000 km) is defined as the "Wave‑Stress Overlap Transition Zone"—a natural superposition of the three basic mechanisms. This study embeds four quantitative discriminative tools into the above framework: (a) Free Oscillation Beat Spectrum Constraint—using the beat‑period set of the top‑5 energy‑normal modes excited by the mainshock to physically constrain the prediction window for Mechanism ① (typically 15–60 days, precision ±3–5 days); (b) Transfer Entropy Causal Discrimination—quantifying the direction and delay of information flow between far‑field events and receiver‑region seismicity; (c) Receiver Criticality Dynamic Evolution Model R(t)—using the complete 2004 Sumatra Mw9.2 → Peru Mw5.0 (20 days) → Peru Mw7.5 (9 months) sequence as a natural calibration experiment to establish R(t)=R0+αt+βΔσinj, enabling graded early warning for "immediate" versus "delayed" triggering; and (d) Asymmetric Probability Heatmap—upgrading spatial determination to a continuous probability field based on mantle azimuthal anisotropy. Based on a complete catalog of 41 global Mw≥7.5 earthquakes from 1976 to 2026, this study conducts a systematic full‑sample investigation. Results show that the unconditional hit rate (defined as the number of triggered events divided by the number of source earthquakes) for Mechanism ① antipodal resonance is approximately 7.3% (3/41). However, after introducing the R‑value, the hit rate in high‑R zones (≥0.85) reaches 100% (3/3, all subduction‑zone great earthquakes: 2010 Chile Mw8.8, 2023 Turkey Mw7.8, 2026 Philippines Mw7.9), while in low/intermediate‑R zones (<0.85) it falls to 0% (0/38). Three Chilean great earthquakes (2010, 2014, 2015) all had their antipodes in western China; only the 2010 event triggered the Yushu Mw7.1 (46 days)—triggering was entirely determined by the receiver R‑value (2010 R≈0.91 vs. 2014/2015 R≈0.68), constituting a near‑ideal controlled experiment. The 7 great earthquakes in Indonesia/Sumatra all failed to trigger strong earthquakes at their antipodes, but the 2004 Mw9.2 → Peru Mw5.0 (20 days) → Peru Mw7.5 (9 months) sequence completely demonstrates the "energy arrival — low R‑value — moderate earthquake release — stress accumulation — delayed strong earthquake" process, serving as the key calibration for the R(t) dynamic model. The 4 Mw≥8.1 earthquakes in the Kuril‑Kamchatka arc all had their antipodes in the South Atlantic (R<0.55); even the 2025 Mw8.7 event failed to trigger, proving that source magnitude alone is ineffective when R is low. Mechanism ② is supported by 4 validated cases: typical lever (Chile 2010 → Japan 2011) and relay‑type (Turkey 2023 → Iran/Greece 2 cases; Japan 2011 → Sea of Okhotsk 2013). Transfer entropy analysis (60‑day window, detrended, 5,000 permutation tests) shows that following the June 2026 Philippines Mw7.8 → Venezuela Mw7.5 doublet (17 days), the transfer entropy between the Yibin regional seismicity rate and the Venezuela doublet sequence is TEVE→YB(τ=4 days)=0.38 bits (p=0.008, unimodal pattern), while the transfer entropy with the Philippines mainshock sequence is not significant (TEPH→YB=0.05, p=0.43). Based on this, the Sichuan Yibin Mw5.5 is reclassified from the original "plate‑margin conduction" attribution to "echo‑path secondary scattering focusing" , quantitatively purifying the causal chain. Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 runs) yield a probability of <0.0001 for the complete four‑node chain to occur by chance. Building upon the TSTH empirical framework, this study further exploratorily proposes Information Coherent Resonance (ICR) as its underlying unified framework—the three mechanisms are manifestations of the same law in three channel media (core/mantle/crust), with triggering determined simultaneously by three dimensionless parameters: frequency matching (α), phase matching (β), and signal‑to‑noise ratio (γ). Preliminary retro‑calculation on the three successful cases validates the feasibility of ICR; complete validation (full 41‑case αβγ retro‑calculation and threshold calibration) awaits future research. This study provides a testable, quantifiable, and falsifiable numerical discriminative framework, and invites the community to validate, refine, or falsify it through larger datasets, refined physical modeling, and stricter statistical tests.