Non-Equilibrium Recovery of Plankton Communities in the Yangtze River Estuary: Three Years After the Fishing Ban

Large-scale fishing bans are increasingly implemented to restore aquatic ecosystems, yet their effects on lower trophic levels remain poorly understood. As one of the world’s largest estuarine systems, the Yangtze River Estuary has been subjected to a ten-year fishing ban since 2021, providing a unique opportunity to potentially examine the response of plankton community to reduced fishing pressure along a steep salinity–nutrient gradient. This study relies on one-off environmental and plankton field surveys conducted in autumn 2024 (a sampling instead of multi-year time-series monitoring), we applied redundancy analysis, Mantel tests, and threshold indicator taxa analysis to tentatively clarify the roles of nutrients and salinity in structuring post-ban plankton communities. Species richness may have increased substantially compared with pre-ban levels, but community evenness declined and the dominance of Skeletonema costatum could have intensified, revealing a possible non-equilibrium recovery pattern. Zooplankton density increased substantially, which may not be fully consistent with the expectation under a simple top-down release scenario. Threshold analysis showed that S. costatum exhibited bidirectional responses to dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate, with its positive response thresholds matching ambient nutrient concentrations in the inner estuary; this discrepancy is only a plausible inference since we lack direct measurements of fish predation and zooplankton grazing rates to verify causal trophic interactions. Our findings suggest that bottom-up forces driven by persistent eutrophication remain the dominant control on plankton community structure three years after the ban. From a watershed management perspective, our observational results provide a tentative implication that substantial reductions in nutrient loading might be required to mitigate unbalanced plankton community recovery; otherwise, the structural integrity of plankton assemblages could lag far behind the recovery of species richness under the current eutrophic background.