Urban land degradation risks under climate change: a RUSLE-based approach

Soil erosion is a critical factor contributing to land degradation, and its dynamics in urban environments is influenced by a combination of anthropogenic activities and climate change. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on soil erosion in Belgrade’s urban landscape using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model and climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX dataset. The analysis was conducted for the reference period (2001-2019) and projected for three future time frames (2016-2035, 2046-2065, 2081-2100) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results indicate that the intensity of soil erosion will vary depending on the climate scenario. In the reference year 2019, the average annual soil loss was 4.15 t ha-1 y-1. In future periods, soil erosion is expected to increase under the RCP4.5 scenario, with values ranging from 4.2 to 4.25 t ha-1 y-1. In contrast, the RCP8.5 scenario shows more pronounced fluctuations, ranging from 3.71 to 4.39 t ha-1 y-1. The spatial analysis shows that the most vulnerable areas are those with steep slopes and degraded vegetation cover, while the expansion of impervious surfaces in urban areas further exacerbates the risks of surface runoff and erosion. These findings underscore the urgent need for tailored urban planning strategies and sustainable land management practices in urban areas. The preservation of vegetation cover, the implementation of soil protection measures, and the integration of climate projections into urban development planning can substantially mitigate the adverse effects of erosion. This study provides valuable insights that can support more effective decision-making in land conservation and urban planning in the context of climate change.