Does sustainability uncertainty matter for tourism development?

Purpose The study examines the impact of the Sustainability Uncertainty Index on county tourism development. It also examines this relationship across countries with low and high levels of tourism development. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of 23 countries over an 18-year period (2003–2020), the study employs a two-way fixed-effects regression and conducts various robustness checks to validate its results. Findings The study found that, for the sample countries, the Sustainability Uncertainty Index has a negative but statistically insignificant effect on tourism development, as measured by both receipts and arrivals. Analysis across tourism development levels also shows that, from the lower to the upper quartile, the Sustainability Uncertainty Index has no significant impact on tourism development receipts and arrivals. Additionally, in the sample countries, both low- and high-tourism-development countries showed a negative impact of Sustainability Uncertainty on their tourism development receipts and arrivals, but the effect was insignificant. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by helping to understand the impact of the sustainability uncertainty index on the countries’ tourism development.