AI-based scenario management for SMEs: the need for modular, explainable and reusable foresight pipelines

ABSTRACT: Small and medium-sized enterprises often lack the time, expertise, and tools for effective scenario management. This paper proposes a modular, AI-enabled scenario architecture integrating a guided wizard and expert environment on a shared knowledge backbone. The design aims to reduce effort and tool fragmentation while preserving human judgment, structural quality, explainability, and traceability. The proposed pattern outlines a provenance-aware foresight pipeline with human-in-the-loop capabilities that aims to transform one-off projects into reusable organizational knowledge.