Impact of ESG (environmental, social, and governance) performance expectation gap on corporations’ green technology innovation in China

In the context of green development and innovation-driven policies, the influence of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors on green technology innovation (GTI) has become a focal point of academic and policy discussions. This study develops an ESG performance expectation gap index to explore its impact on GTI systematically. Employing panel data from Chinese A-share listed enterprises spanning 2011 to 2024 and drawing on prospect theory, the analysis uncovers a significant U-shaped relationship between the ESG performance expectation gap and GTI, indicating that as the gap widens, enterprises initially reduce but eventually intensify their green innovation efforts. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that this non-linear pattern is more evident among non-polluting enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises, and enterprises located in central and western regions of China. Mechanism tests highlight that enterprises ’ green strategic orientation(GSO) and green organizational learning capability (GOLC) are critical mediators. GOLC enhances the effectiveness of GSO, thus indirectly promoting GTI. Furthermore, the enhancing effect of GOLC on GSO has distinct phased characteristics, and the mediating effect of the interaction term is only significant during the expansion stage of the ESG performance gap. This research contributes to the literature by introducing a dynamic perspective on the ESG-innovation nexus and elucidating how ESG-related pressures can be transformed into innovation drivers. The findings offer theoretical and practical guidance for advancing enterprise green transformation and achieving high-quality, sustainable development.