An Exploratory GIS-Based Contribution to Geothermal Favourability Mapping in Hercynian Granite-Hosted Fractured Systems: Guarda District, Central Portugal

Geothermal energy is a locally available, low-carbon resource that may support heat supply, building decarbonisation and regional energy diversification in non-volcanic crystalline settings. This study proposes an exploratory GIS-based approach for geothermal favourability mapping in the Guarda District, Central Portugal, where Hercynian granites, major fault systems and thermal and mineral water occurrences define a structurally controlled hydrogeothermal framework. Hydrogeochemical data from 54 groundwater abstraction points were integrated through silica-derived apparent geothermometric indicators, classical hydrothermal-parameter estimation and Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction (EBKRP). Apparent silica-derived temperature indicators, circulation depth, geothermal gradient and theoretical thermal power were estimated, with log10 transformed thermal power used as the dependent variable and distance to major mapped faults as the structural covariate. Apparent silica-derived temperature indicators range from 21.3 °C to 121.2 °C, with a mean of 64.6 °C, while estimated geothermal gradients range from 20.3 °C/km to 92.1 °C/km. Higher estimated values occur preferentially near NE–SW and NNW–SSE fault systems, suggesting that structural permeability may influence deep groundwater circulation. The interpretation explicitly acknowledges that, in low-temperature systems, dissolved silica may be influenced by chalcedony or amorphous silica control, as well as by cooling, mixing and incomplete re-equilibration during fluid ascent. The resulting map is interpreted as a screening-level favourability product, not as a definitive assessment of exploitable geothermal resources, and supports the prioritisation of future structural mapping, geophysical surveys, exploratory drilling, borehole temperature logging and applied geothermal assessment in fractured granitic terrains.