The CIA’s Analysis into Kim Il-sung’s Succession Plans

Thanks to newly declassified intelligence documents from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), scholars are now able to assess how the first hereditary succession of Kim Il-sung to Kim Jong-il was analyzed, the issues surrounding it, and how these assessments compare to those of contemporary North Korean academic specialists. The key issue that plagued the CIA’s understanding of North Korea was Agency management’s disinterest in North Korean politics. The priority was on monitoring the North Korean military over Kim Il-sung’s succession plans and the uncertainty surrounding if Kim Jong-il had the necessary elite support for his plans, and if Kim Family members were viable threats to the succession. These documents highlight the complexity and frustrations that the CIA faced in analyzing what remains one of the most difficult intelligence targets even into the 21st Century.