Years of life lost in patients with a false-negative diagnosis of primary melanoma. A prospective study of the German Central Malignant Melanoma Registry involving 9063 patients over 28 years

A false-negative diagnosis of cancer can lead to a delay in effective treatment and a poorer prognosis. Here, we use the example of cutaneous melanoma to examine how many years of life are lost after a false-negative diagnosis compared to a primarily correct diagnosis. From 1996 to 2015, 9,063 patients are prospectively registered in the German Central Malignant Melanoma Registry and followed up until December 2023. A false-negative diagnosis is found in 206 (2.3%) patients. The median time to correct diagnosis is 24.0 months. The 10-year recurrence-free survival probabilities are 32.9% for false-negative diagnoses and 76.2% for correct diagnoses (p < 0.001). The 10-year melanoma-specific survival probabilities are 62.1% versus 85.0% (p < 0.001). On average, each person with an initial false-negative diagnosis loses 8.2 years of life compared to people with a correct diagnosis. This high number of years of life lost raises the question of whether similar results also apply to other types of cancer.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-07-02
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74443-9
Primary Topic
Cutaneous Melanoma Detection and Management
Type
article
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article

Years of life lost in patients with a false-negative diagnosis of primary melanoma. A prospective study of the German Central Malignant Melanoma Registry involving 9063 patients over 28 years

Claus Garbe, John M. Kirkwood, Michael Andrew Postow, Gisela Metzler et al.
Nature Communications
Cutaneous Melanoma Detection and Management
article

Years of life lost in patients with a false-negative diagnosis of primary melanoma. A prospective study of the German Central Malignant Melanoma Registry involving 9063 patients over 28 years

Claus Garbe, John M. Kirkwood, Michael Andrew Postow, Gisela Metzler, Sara Gandini, Stephan Forchhammer, Ulrike Keim, Célèste Lebbé, David C. Whiteman, Andrea Forschner, Paolo A. Ascierto, Dirk Schadendorf, Friedegund Meier, Axel Hauschild, Peter Martus, Christoph Höeller, Thomas Eigentler, Jason J. Luke, Paul C. Lorigan, Georgina Venetia Long, Jeffrey E. Gershenwald, Reinhard Dummer, Martin Röcken, Ulrike Leiter, Caroline Robert, Paul Nathan, Lukas Flatz, Alexander M. M. Eggermont, Teresa Amaral, Jürgen Bauer, Benjamin Weide
article en

Abstract

A false-negative diagnosis of cancer can lead to a delay in effective treatment and a poorer prognosis. Here, we use the example of cutaneous melanoma to examine how many years of life are lost after a false-negative diagnosis compared to a primarily correct diagnosis. From 1996 to 2015, 9,063 patients are prospectively registered in the German Central Malignant Melanoma Registry and followed up until December 2023. A false-negative diagnosis is found in 206 (2.3%) patients. The median time to correct diagnosis is 24.0 months. The 10-year recurrence-free survival probabilities are 32.9% for false-negative diagnoses and 76.2% for correct diagnoses (p < 0.001). The 10-year melanoma-specific survival probabilities are 62.1% versus 85.0% (p < 0.001). On average, each person with an initial false-negative diagnosis loses 8.2 years of life compared to people with a correct diagnosis. This high number of years of life lost raises the question of whether similar results also apply to other types of cancer.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 17(1)
Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (US), The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center (US), Inserm (FR), University of Zurich (CH), Cornell University (US), QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (AU), Heidelberg University (DE), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), Royal North Shore Hospital (AU), Institut Gustave Roussy (FR), University Hospital Heidelberg (DE), University Medical Center Utrecht (NL), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE), Sorbonne Paris Cité (FR), Assistance Publique – Hôpitaux de Paris (FR), Stuttgart Observatory (DE), Hirslanden Klinik Aarau (CH), Mount Vernon Cancer Centre (GB), National Center for Tumor Diseases (DE), University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (DE), Olgahospital (DE), Melanoma Institute Australia (AU), Essen University Hospital (DE), Princess Máxima Center (NL), UPMC Hillman Cancer Center (US), The Christie NHS Foundation Trust (GB), University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (US), Istituto Nazionale Tumori IRCCS "Fondazione G. Pascale" (IT), STZ eyetrial (DE), Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IT), Kantonsspital Aarau (CH), Klinikum Stuttgart (DE), University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus (DE), European Institute of Oncology (IT), Medical University of Vienna (AT), Technische Universität Dresden (DE), University of Tübingen (DE), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE), University of Lübeck (DE)
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Cutaneous Melanoma Detection and Management
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