State surveillance and collective dissent

Abstract State surveillance facilitates the collection of intelligence on dissidents while simultaneously providing information about the value of the status quo. I study this trade‐off in a context where an uninformed government must decide whether to repress. Because citizens expect more informed governments to enact greater repression, autocratic surveillance can create a climate of fear. However, surveillance can also stimulate dissent when citizens have access to public information. State surveillance gives citizens an opportunity to coordinate, even in the absence of a preference for such coordination. Surveillance can amplify dissent by enhancing citizens' motivations for political activism aimed at drawing the government's attention to political and economic issues. Coordination distorts government learning, resulting in lower expected levels of repression. The analysis further indicates that the effectiveness of advanced surveillance technology depends on expectations regarding repression, thereby underscoring a psychological aspect of state control.