Energy transition in the Brazilian Northeast: emissions and electrical sustainability

Abstract The Brazilian Northeast has been consolidating itself as a key hub in the country’s energy transition, due to its high technical potential for electricity generation from renewables. This study analyzes the dynamics of the Northeastern electricity matrix between 2015 and 2023. The central methodology applied is the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), which enabled the quantification of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (carbon footprint). The Renewability Index ( $$\:RI$$ ) of electricity production is also determined along with the electricity self-sufficiency of the states in the region. The results reveal a significant transformation in the electricity mix during the study period, with a strong substitution of fossil fuels by renewables. Wind power expanded prominently in Rio Grande do Norte, Piauí, and Bahia, while solar power grew in Ceará, Sergipe, and Paraíba. This regional energy transition led to a remarkable reduction in the carbon intensity of electricity, reaching 0.062 kg CO 2 -eq/kWh in 2023, an 83.29% decrease compared to 2015. The total GHG emissions in the region also dropped by 71.73%, despite an 88.87% increase in electricity generation. The regional average $$\:RI$$ increased from 53.89% in 2015 to 94.78% in 2023, demonstrating a steady improvement in renewable integration. In conclusion, the Brazilian Northeast has made substantial progress in building a low carbon and more sustainable electricity matrix. The growing share of renewables has not only reduced GHG emissions but also strengthened the region’s capacity to meet its own energy demand.