Envisioning circular futures in shrinking cities and regions: Goal dependencies underpinning transition drivers

As the circular economy gains traction as an alternative sustainability paradigm, its translation into local and regional policy frameworks reveals a spectrum of interpretations shaped by divergent goals. Consequently, the adoption of the circular economy agenda becomes highly contingent upon context-specific governance visions and priorities. This paper explores how the circular economy is mobilised in two structurally shrinking European regions, Satakunta (Finland) and Parkstad Limburg (Netherlands), and how the resulting policy agendas reflect underlying “goal dependencies” in urban and regional governance, that is, the influences of constructed and shared futures on present-day choices. Drawing on Evolutionary Governance Theory, the study examines through a comparative discourse analysis how enduring visions of economic renewal, image reconstruction, and institutional legitimacy shape the practical deployment of circular economy initiatives. In Satakunta, circularity is aligned with industrial modernisation, growth stimulation, and the attraction of foreign investment, continuing a long-standing developmental trajectory. In contrast, the policy discourse in Parkstad focuses on circular construction as a tool to combat regional stigma, restore public trust, and reposition the region within national and European circular economy narratives. In both cases, the circular economy vision functions less as a predefined endpoint and more as a strategic instrument for enacting future-oriented governance goals. The findings highlight how governance coalitions in shrinking cities and regions mobilise circular economy discourses to sustain reinvention, address structural decline, and reassert relevance, underscoring the importance of unpacking local goal orientations in understanding circular transition pathways.