Exploring the regional dynamics of transit-induced commercial gentrification: a survival analysis approach

This study aims to explain transit-induced commercial gentrification by quantifying the impact of opening a new metro on the closure of nearby businesses. We conducted survival analysis and Kernel Density Estimation comparing closure differences between existing and new businesses around the new metro line, focusing on periods before and after the opening. Furthermore, to identify regional heterogeneity in transit-induced commercial gentrification, we conducted a comparative analysis by dividing regions based on socioeconomic characteristics. The analysis results show that transit-induced commercial gentrification occurred around new metro stations located in areas undergoing development and socioeconomic growth and differed by land use. In particular, rapid demographic changes, an increase in commercial land price, and an increase in the overall number of businesses were observed around metro stations where commercial gentrification occurred. The framework proposed in this study is expected to be applicable to other regions and contribute to advancing the understanding of transit-induced commercial gentrification.