The West Africa Agricultural Food Security Crisis: A Data-Driven Analysis of Production Paradoxes, Input Inefficiencies and Conflict-Driven Collapse

ABSTRACT West Africa faces a deepening agricultural food security crisis characterised by a paradox of increasing crop production alongside persistently high undernourishment rates. This study presents a data-driven analysis of agricultural production trends, input cost dynamics, food security indicators and conflict-driven shocks across six West African nations — Nigeria, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Senegal — spanning 25 years (2000–2024). Drawing on publicly available datasets from the Food and Agriculture Organisation Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) and the FAO Data in Emergencies Monitoring System (DIEM), this research employs structured query language (SQL) analytical querying and interactive data visualisation to examine the structural drivers of food insecurity in the region. Findings reveal that Nigeria, the region's dominant agricultural producer at 3,002 million tonnes of cumulative crop output, paradoxically records the highest average undernourishment rate at 22% and the largest absolute burden of 22 million undernourished people. Analysis further demonstrates that Nigeria's fertilizer investment — peaking at 277,000 tonnes in 2021 — generates significantly lower yield returns per hectare than peer nations investing considerably less, suggesting that input investment alone is insufficient without complementary infrastructure and security conditions. Most critically, Nigerian millet production collapsed by approximately 97% between 2008 and 2020, coinciding with the escalation of farmer-herder conflicts across northern food belt states. Household-level DIEM data confirms that 75% of farmers in Zamfara State experienced at least one agricultural shock in 2023, with compounding conflict, fuel price and food price shocks creating conditions from which smallholder recovery without targeted intervention is improbable. These findings collectively challenge the assumption that agricultural output growth is sufficient to achieve food security, and call for integrated policy responses addressing conflict resolution, post-harvest infrastructure investment and equitable food distribution systems across West Africa.