Assessing the impact of climate change on global value chain participation: evidence from maize farmers in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

Climate variability increasingly threatens smallholder agriculture in South Africa; however, limited attention has been given to its impact on integration into global value chains (GVCs). This study examined how climate variability influences smallholder maize farmers’ participation in GVCs in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. A mixed-methods approach was used, combining survey data from 200 farmers with qualitative interviews on perceptions and adaptation strategies. Ordered logistic regression results indicated that education (β = 0.464, p = 0.023), maize color (β = 1.092, p = 0.005), and income (β = 0.220, p = 0.087) significantly and positively affected participation. At the same time, rainfall variability and drought frequency had negative effects (β = –0.621, p = 0.086). These findings suggest that socioeconomic factors boost participation and resilience, whereas climate shocks and production uncertainty decrease competitiveness. Although existing training programmes increased awareness, their effect on market access remained limited. Farmers involved in GVCs showed greater capacity for adaptation compared to non-participants. Overall, climate shocks represent the chief obstacle to smallholder competitiveness, as socioeconomic resources provide only limited insulation against these risks. The study provides new evidence linking climate variability to GVC participation. It offers policy insights for promoting climate-smart agriculture, enhancing adaptive capacity, and encouraging inclusive market participation among smallholder farmers in South Africa.