Estimating the impact of establishing family housing on the annual risk of HIV infection in South African mining communities

The objective of this study was to determine the HIV related epidemiologic impact of establishing family-style housing in mining communities in South Africa. Modeling sex acts as independent Bernoulli trials, the estimated impact of converting to family housing arrangements on the annual risk of HIV infection is calculated and the differential effects on migrants and their partners is explored. Family housing could reduce HIV transmission among migrants and their partners in South Africa. Given baseline estimates, the predicted net reduction in the annual risk of HIV infection with family housing is 0.0254 and 0.0305 for short- and long-stay couples respectively. A reduction in the annual risk of HIV infection under family housing depends on the proportion of HIV negative concordance among couples. HIV-negative concordance among couples above 22% provides reductions in the annual risk of HIV infection under family housing. The results indicate that family housing could decrease HIV transmission among HIV-negative concordant couples, indicating that this policy alternative should be examined closely to assess its viability and use as a prevention method.