Syndemics, violence and injury: exploring historical relationships between infectious disease epidemics and violent crime in South Africa

This paper explores historical and contemporary intersections between mass-mortality epidemics and violent crime in South Africa, focusing on four major epidemics - Spanish Flu, tuberculosis, HIV, and Covid-19. The study integrates epidemiological data and contextual historical information such as crime statistics, archival records, and secondary scholarship to explore whether epidemic-driven mortality crises are associated with subsequent changes in violence and injury profiles. With the possible exception of gendered violence, the study finds little evidence that earlier epidemics directly contributed to rapid or sustained increases in violent crime, despite causing substantial adult mortality and long-term social and economic disruption. A comparison between epidemic and socio-economic profiles strongly suggests that the significant increases in violent crime recorded after the Covid-19 pandemic are highly localised, and may be more strongly related to lockdown responses, including alcohol restrictions, rather than the effects of disease itself.