Sustainable and Integrated Selection of Photovoltaic Sites and Technologies Using the Delphi–AHP Method: Multi-Criteria Evidence of the Critical Role of Grid Capacity in Latin America

By the end of 2024, global photovoltaic (PV) capacity exceeded 2.2 TW, shifting planning from feasibility demonstration toward site–technology co-selection under energy, technical, economic, environmental, territorial, and socio-regulatory constraints. The existing multicriteria literature treats site and technology selection as independent problems under an implicit infinite-grid assumption, which is untenable in markets such as Chile and Peru. This study develops and validates an integrated Delphi–AHP framework with six criteria and eighteen subcriteria calibrated by twenty-eight experts from six Latin American countries. The framework underwent Delphi binary validation, AHP consistency control (CRagg between 0.0013 and 0.0247; discard rate 2.6%), geometric-mean aggregation, deterministic sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations), rank-reversal testing, and nonparametric subgroup analysis. The dominant pair {I2,Ec2}, consisting of grid hosting capacity and LCOE, appears as Top-2 in 84.77% of Monte Carlo iterations and is preserved across 15 of 16 leave-one-out scenarios. Grid hosting capacity surpasses useful solar resource by a factor of 3.41. A demonstrative application to 18 site–technology alternatives confirms the ranking, with an objective-weighting benchmark (entropy, CRITIC) yielding concordant results (Spearman ρ≥0.89). The findings formalize a shift in the PV planning bottleneck from solar resource to grid capacity.