Operational Physics of Mega-Project Stability: Coherence Measurement for Engineering, Procurement, and Construction Systems — EPC Observatory and Coherence Intelligence Platform (UCMS Canon)

This paper introduces the EPC Observatory and the Coherence Intelligence Platform, extending the Standard Coherence Fidelity Layer (SCFL) into Engineering, Procurement & Construction megaprojects. By treating EPC delivery as a sovereign-scale coupled system, the framework models multi-layer coupling, seam-driven rupture, irreversible dynamics, drift accumulation, phase-locking failures, tension escalation, and collapse geometry — failure modes structurally invariant with grid instability, shipping congestion, hospital collapse, sovereign drift, and reinsurance loss clusters. The paper formalizes the amplification cascade as the central operational mechanism: a physics-based model in which small upstream anomalies compound through seam networks into large downstream failures before conventional dashboards register any signal. The nine-operator MaaS pipeline (ERP Drift Telemetry → Ripple Field Extractor → Upstream Coherence Metrics → SCADA Stability Vectors → Seam Stress Mapper → Rupture Susceptibility Metrics → Catastrophe Modeling → Collapse Geometry Integrator → Irreversible Dynamics Metrics) converts existing ERP, SCADA, Primavera P6, BIM, and AVEVA telemetry into coherence-physics metrics without additional data-collection burden.A Preliminary holdout validation across five empirical collapse cases (Enron, SVB, Boeing, Texas Grid 2021, ACTIVSg2000) using a leave-one-out protocol (20% holdout fraction per run) yields a median AUC ≈ 0.87 (range 0.85–0.89) with ±1.3-week lead-time stability and embedding correlation r ≥ 0.96. The Precursor Window (PW) is formalized as PW = {t | ΔC(t) ≠ 0, P(t_m) > 0, S_k(t) < 1, C(t) ∉ ∂Ω} — the last bounded interval in which intervention can restore coherence before recoverability collapses. Key contributions include: SCFL state-space geometry for EPC (five-variable X(t) vector); eight-parameter seam physics model with proxy instrument mapping; discrete and continuous-time amplification cascade formulations; EPC Recovery-Trajectory Classification (R1–R4, Bonanno-equivalent); Executive KPI Bridge (Δ-drift → schedule-slip probability; Φ-phase stability → procurement coherence strength; τ-tension → seam-stress escalation rate); three-tier EPC value structure; and a defined 12-week passive data-mirroring pilot protocol with falsifiable success criteria (F1–F4). The paper is part of the Upstream Coherence Measurement Stratum (UCMS) Canon (128+ deposited manuscripts). Primary canon references: SCFL Vol. 1 (10.5281/zenodo.20571818), Ripple Physics (10.5281/zenodo.20985523), NRSCO v1.3 (10.5281/zenodo.20788254). sample report available for download Author: Ronald L Brogdon | Team Leader, UCMS | ORCID: 0009-0009-0507-2971 | measurement@coherencemanagement