Competence, cost and commitment: a theory of planned behavior–guided mixed-methods study of first-year student persistence in Indonesian higher education

Purpose This study extends the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explain first-year university students’ intention to persist in Indonesian higher education by modeling competence enablers and financial barriers as antecedents of perceived behavioral control (PBC). Design/methodology/approach An explanatory sequential mixed-methods design was used. A survey of 335 first-year undergraduates measured attitude, subjective norms, PBC, competence enablers, and financial barriers using forty-two 10-point items and was analyzed with PLS-SEM. Semi-structured interviews were then conducted to contextualize unexpected quantitative results, particularly the non-significant role of financial barriers. Findings Perceived behavioral control emerged as the strongest determinant of persistence intention, followed by attitude and subjective norms. Competence enablers substantially strengthened PBC and also had a modest direct effect on intention. The results demonstrate a clear mediational mechanism in which competence enablers exert their primary influence by increasing perceived behavioral control, which subsequently elevates intention. Financial barriers, however, showed no meaningful association with PBC or intention. Qualitative findings indicate that work–study routines, family support, scholarship expectations, and framing higher education as a mobility pathway helped buffer financial pressures before they could weaken intention. Originality/value The study advances TPB by empirically specifying competence enablers and financial barriers as control-belief antecedents of PBC in the early-semester persistence context. Mixed-methods evidence further clarifies that perceived control – rather than financial strain – is the central engine of persistence intention among Indonesian first-year students, highlighting competence development and financial buffering as key institutional levers.