Pour climate risk on corporate debt maturity mismatch: moderation role of formal and informal institution

Against worsening global climate change, growing climate risk uncertainty severely challenges firms’ capital activities. This paper theoretically analyzes climate risk’s effect on corporate debt maturity mismatch (CDM), its mechanisms and heterogeneity. Based on 2007–2022 China's A-share panel data and two-way fixed effects models, empirical results show one standard deviation higher climate risk lifts CDM by 6.9%, verified robust by endogeneity test, double machine learning, system GMM and alternative variable controls. Mechanism analysis suggests that climate risk exacerbates maturity mismatch by tightening financing channels, increasing operational uncertainty, and stimulating environmental investment. This adverse effect is more pronounced among higher degree of bank-enterprise ties, firms with weaker environmental disclosure, and those outside heavily polluting industries. Notably, both formal and informal institutions play a mitigating role, helping reduce CDM when facing higher climate risks.