Multi-country projections of temperature-related suicide mortality
Rising temperatures have raised concerns about impacts on mental health, including suicide. However, how climate change will affect global temperature-related suicide remains unclear. Using data from 751 locations across 26 countries, combined with climate projections under 3 emissions scenarios, we estimated temperature–suicide associations and projected temperature-related suicide mortality through the 2050s, assuming no adaptation, demographic shifts or changes in suicide rate. Here we show that climate change is projected to increase suicide mortality attributable to temperature across all studied regions, with the magnitude depending on both the emissions scenario and geographic location. Warmer regions—including Central and South America, South Europe, Southeast Asia and South Africa—show larger increases, while temperate and colder regions such as North America, North Europe, East Asia and Australia show smaller but meaningful rises. These findings highlight the potential of climate change to exacerbate suicide and underscore the importance of adaptive mitigation strategies. Using data from 751 locations in 26 countries and climate projections under 3 emissions scenarios, this study models temperature–suicide associations and projects future temperature-related suicide mortality to the 2050s.
Authors
- Aleš Urban (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4608-3553)
- Éric Lavigne (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6146-9839)
- Masahiro Hashizume (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4720-1750)
- Jan Kyselý (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6371-6597)
- Michelle Lee Bell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3965-1359)
- Haidong Kan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1871-8999)
- Yoonhee Kim (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2517-1087)
- Fiorella Acquaotta (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-3313)
- Nicolás Valdés Ortega (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7609-4291)
- Trần Ngọc Đăng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5287-0265)
- Whanhee Lee (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5723-9061)
- Y Honda
- Yeonseung Chung (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1501-2747)
- Joel Schwartz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6168-378X)
- Francesca Katherine de'Donato (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2225-9457)
- Ene Indermitte
- Francesco Sera (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8890-6848)
- Do Van Dung (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6872-3481)
- Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-1278)
- Noah Scovronick (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1410-3337)
- Hans Orru (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7965-9451)
- Maximilian Schwarz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8059-5697)
- Lina Madaniyazi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9067-2422)
- Wenzhong Huang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8871-1947)
- Jouni J. K. Jaakkola (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4168-4683)
- Shih‐Chun Pan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2362-3940)
- Dominic Royé (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5516-6396)
- Shanshan Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9021-8470)
- Yuming Guo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1766-6592)
- Veronika Huber (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9633-2752)
- Guo Y
- Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano
- Iulian Horia Holobâca
- Paul Lester Carlos Chua
- Hyeyeong Ro
- Martina S. Ragettli
- A Zanobetti
- Patricia Matus Correa
- Pierre Masselot
- Paola Michelozzi
- Antonio Gasparrini
- Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva
- Xerxes Seposo
- Ho Kim
- Alexandra Schneider
- Nillo Ryti
- Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Carmen Íñiguez
- Ben Armstrong
- Aurelio Tobias
Institutions
- University of Bern (CH)
- Health Canada (CA)
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH)
- Harvard University (US)
- Seoul National University (KR)
- Emory University (US)
- University of Ottawa (CA)
- Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KR)
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (CH)
- Universitat de València (ES)
- National Health Research Institutes (TW)
- University of Basel (CH)
- Universidad de Los Andes, Chile (CL)
- Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (PE)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Hokkaido University (JP)
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ)
- Fudan University (CN)
- Oulu University Hospital (FI)
- Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (GB)
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City (VN)
- Helmholtz Zentrum München (DE)
- Babeș-Bolyai University (RO)
- Yale University (US)
- Estación Biológica de Doñana (ES)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Misión Biológica de Galicia (ES)
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (MX)
- National Taiwan University Hospital (TW)
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (CH)
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (ES)
- Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica (TW)
- Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CZ)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (ES)
- Nagasaki University (JP)
- University of Florence (IT)
- Pusan National University (KR)
- Insper (BR)
- University of Turin (IT)
- University of Tartu (EE)
- Monash University (AU)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- University of Oulu (FI)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Mental Health
- Published
- 2026-06-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s44220-026-00674-w
- Primary Topic
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Research Foundation
- Grantová Agentura České Republiky
- Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
- Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science