Detailed Assessment of Green Hydrogen Production Potential in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Technical, Environmental and Social Aspects

With the growing energy demand and concerns about environmental impacts, green hydrogen has become one of the main alternatives for a clean and reliable energy future. Brazil presents itself as one of the main potential suppliers of this renewable fuel, considering its resource abundance, such as solar irradiation. Therefore, the present study aims to evaluate in detail the hydrogen production potential of one of Brazil’s main states when it comes to solar power potential, Minas Gerais. The potential for each of the 853 municipalities of the region was assessed individually using three different methodologies, indicating that the state could produce 2365.2 TWh of electricity or 47.3 MtH2/year (with a maximum variation of 3.4% between the methodologies), nearly five times the EU’s projected 2030 hydrogen import demand. This estimation, however, was significantly reduced when only areas with a slope lower than 8% were considered, decreasing land availability by 40% and cutting hydrogen potential by 18.8 Mt/year. On the other hand, increasing power density from 4 to 15 MWh/km2 almost tripled hydrogen production potential, while electrolyzer efficiency also presented a positive effect on hydrogen output. Finally, the comparison of hydrogen potential with Human Development Index (HDI) data indicates that the most productive mesoregions often coincide with lower human development levels, particularly in the “Norte de Minas” and “Jequitinhonha” mesoregions, highlighting the opportunity to align energy transition with regional development goals. Therefore, targeted investments in these regions could generate jobs, boost income, and reduce inequalities, reinforcing green hydrogen as both an environmental and social driver.