The shift from airline efficiency to system constraints: A system-level analysis of U.S. Airline operational performance (2022-2024)

Airline operational performance is substantially affected by delays and cancellations. This study presents a comparative analysis of performance changes between 2022 and 2024 using key indicators such as on-time performance, cancellations, diversions, and delay causes (air carrier, weather, security, NAS, and late aircraft). The results reveal a clear seasonality pattern across all three years. Average on-time rates improved from 76.3% in 2022 to 78.3% in 2023, before slightly declining to 78.0% in 2024, with 2023 showing the best overall performance. Peak on-time performance occurred in October 2022 (83.25%), November 2023 (86.22%), and October 2024 (85.81%), while the lowest levels were observed in December 2022 (68.72%) and July in both 2023 (69.45%) and 2024 (68.08%). Cancellation rates were highest in 2022 at approximately 2.8%, followed by a notable improvement in 2023 (1.3%) and stability in 2024 (1.35%). Diversion rates remained consistently low (around 0.23%-0.24%) with no significant variation. In terms of delay components, Air Carrier Delays decreased over time, whereas NAS Delays and Late Arriving Aircraft Delays showed a gradual increase. Overall, the findings suggest the possibility of a gradual shift from operational pressures associated with Air Carrier Delays toward broader system-level constraints, particularly NAS-related and Late Arriving Aircraft delays, affecting operational performance.