Assessing Wind Power Potential, Multidimensional Wind Risk, and Development Suitability in Xinjiang, China, During 1979–2018

Wind energy resource assessment in complex terrain regions requires high-resolution data and multidimensional risk evaluation beyond conventional wind speed climatology. This study uses a 40-year (1979–2018) WRF dynamical downscaling dataset assimilating over 2400 surface stations to assess wind power potential, long-term trends, diurnal characteristics, and extreme ramp events across nine terrain-defined wind zones in Xinjiang, Northwestern China. The capacity factor, equivalent full-load hours, and wind power density are computed at 100 m hub height and validated against 105 long-term stations. The domain-mean annual capacity factor is 0.08, but resources are concentrated in mountain-pass corridors where core-zone values reach 0.35–0.45. Seasonal asymmetry is pronounced: the windy season (April–August) contributes 57–69% of annual output depending on zone. Long-term trends are spatially differentiated, with a significant decline in southern basin zones and a significant increase in northern zones after 2006. Diurnal capacity factor profiles differ by zone type—nocturnal peaks in basin-margin corridors versus midday peaks in thermally driven passes—and remain phase-stable across four decades. Extreme ramp events concentrate in the windy season and decline in frequency after 2006, and sensitivity tests show that the main spatial pattern remains robust under 5%, 10%, and 15% hourly capacity factor change thresholds. These findings provide a quantitative basis for zone-specific wind power planning, storage sizing, and wind–solar complementarity strategies in arid continental regions with complex topography.