THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS ON E-COMMERCE MARKETING: SPILLOVER EFFECT AND ARDL BOUND TEST

The uncertainty in exchange rate fluctuations has significant effects on the pricing, customer preferences and marketing strategies of e-commerce businesses. Increasing costs and variable profit margins force companies to frequently review their prices; this damages consumer confidence and causes them to turn to alternative products or sales channels. This study examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on e-commerce prices, consumer behavior and economic growth using data from the period 2004-2025. The ARDL model reveals that there is a long-term relationship between exchange rate and consumer interest in e-commerce in Türkiye. Since increases in exchange rate increase the prices of imported products in physical stores, consumers tend to turn to e-commerce platforms that offer more affordable prices. The BEKK-GARCH analysis shows that consumer interest is affected by its own internal fluctuations but there is no direct spillover effect from exchange rate volatility. The findings show that exchange rate movements direct consumer preferences and their effects on e-commerce are significant.