GIS-integrated multi-criteria decision framework for waste-to-energy plant site selection in Beni Suef governorate, Egypt

This study presents the first comprehensive GIS-MCDM site suitability model for a Waste-to-Energy (WTE) facility in Upper Egypt. A sixteen-criterion analytical framework encompassing environmental protection, geological safety, infrastructure accessibility, and social proximity constraints was developed through a structured expert consultation process involving 42 specialists from academic, governmental, and environmental sectors. Criterion weights were derived using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and validated with a Consistency Ratio of 2.6% (well below the 10% threshold). Spatial data layers were derived from Landsat-9 imagery (SVM classification), ASTER GDEM (30 m), ERA5-Land wind reanalysis, World population grids, OpenStreetMap infrastructure networks, and the Conoco-EGPC geological map of Egypt. Across the 10,698.5 km² study area, the integrated suitability map reveals that zones classified as high or very high suitability together constitute only 2.02% of the total area (59.5 km²; very high: 0.19%, 6.3 km²; high: 1.83%, 53.2 km²). The dominant land constraint, 69.3% classified as very low suitability, reflects strict environmental exclusion buffers around protected areas (PA; weight 11.4%), sensitive land uses (SU; 11.2%), surface water bodies (SW; 9.4%), and steep terrain (SP; 9.4%). Three candidate sites with high suitability scores were delineated, with the most favorable located east of Beni Suef city (coordinates: 29°01' N, 31°07' E; area: 22.75 km²), proximate to the governorate's largest existing landfill (~ 2.6 km) and with favorable north-westerly wind alignment relative to populated zones. This study advances the GIS-MCDM literature by integrating geological (faults, lithology, soil bearing capacity) and environmental safety criteria within an arid-region planning context, an approach insufficiently addressed in prior Egypt-focused or MENA (WTE) siting studies. The resulting suitability model constitutes a reproducible, evidence-based decision-support tool for Egyptian environmental planners and aligns with Egypt's Sustainable Development Strategy 2030 goals for renewable energy diversification and circular economy promotion. The selected site shows potential logistical and economic advantages due to its proximity to existing landfill infrastructure and regional road networks; however, these advantages represent spatial screening indicators and require further techno-economic and network-based transport assessment before implementation. Model validation using ROC-AUC analysis confirmed good discriminatory performance, with an AUC of 0.829, overall accuracy of 90.0%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.801.