BOOST: An Adaptive Biomarker-Guided Simon Two-Stage Design with Explicit Control of Pooled and Subgroup Inference

Biomarker-stratified phase II trials need to efficiently identify treatment activity in heterogeneous subpopulations while maintaining rigorous multiplicity control. Conventional approaches, such as parallel Simon two-stage designs, are often inefficient and provide limited guidance on balancing pooled and subgroup-specific efficacy claims under regulatory constraints. We propose a Biomarker-guided Optimized Outcome Simon Two-stage (BOOST) design, which extends the classical Simon framework to adaptive, biomarker-stratified settings. BOOST incorporates explicit stage one futility rules, adaptive enrichment toward promising subgroups, and a unified final-stage decision logic accommodating pooled and subgroup-specific efficacy claims. The design is formulated within a constrained optimization framework that minimizes expected sample size subject to prespecified power and family-wise error rate (FWER) constraints under either weak or strong control. Importantly, the definitions of Type I error rate and power are explicitly aligned with the operational decision rules of the design. Simulation studies demonstrate that BOOST achieves desired Type I error rate control and target power while reducing expected sample size compared with parallel Simon two-stage designs and existing adaptive approaches. Efficiency gains are most pronounced in settings with heterogeneous biomarker-defined treatment effects, with reductions in expected sample size and minimal additional cost when strengthening from weak to strong FWER control.

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Publication Details

Journal
Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research
Published
2026-06-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/19466315.2026.2695044
Primary Topic
Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
Type
article
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article

BOOST: An Adaptive Biomarker-Guided Simon Two-Stage Design with Explicit Control of Pooled and Subgroup Inference

Haitao Pan, 童鹤龄, Hongyu Miao, Weichao Bao et al.
Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research
Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
article

BOOST: An Adaptive Biomarker-Guided Simon Two-Stage Design with Explicit Control of Pooled and Subgroup Inference

Haitao Pan, 童鹤龄, Hongyu Miao, Weichao Bao, Kui Shen
article en

Abstract

Biomarker-stratified phase II trials need to efficiently identify treatment activity in heterogeneous subpopulations while maintaining rigorous multiplicity control. Conventional approaches, such as parallel Simon two-stage designs, are often inefficient and provide limited guidance on balancing pooled and subgroup-specific efficacy claims under regulatory constraints. We propose a Biomarker-guided Optimized Outcome Simon Two-stage (BOOST) design, which extends the classical Simon framework to adaptive, biomarker-stratified settings. BOOST incorporates explicit stage one futility rules, adaptive enrichment toward promising subgroups, and a unified final-stage decision logic accommodating pooled and subgroup-specific efficacy claims. The design is formulated within a constrained optimization framework that minimizes expected sample size subject to prespecified power and family-wise error rate (FWER) constraints under either weak or strong control. Importantly, the definitions of Type I error rate and power are explicitly aligned with the operational decision rules of the design. Simulation studies demonstrate that BOOST achieves desired Type I error rate control and target power while reducing expected sample size compared with parallel Simon two-stage designs and existing adaptive approaches. Efficiency gains are most pronounced in settings with heterogeneous biomarker-defined treatment effects, with reductions in expected sample size and minimal additional cost when strengthening from weak to strong FWER control.

Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research
Florida State University (US), St. Jude Children's Research Hospital (US), Bayer (United States) (US)
Zero hunger
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
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