High-rate phase association with travel time neural fields

Earthquake science and seismology rely on phase association: grouping seismic arrivals recorded across multiple stations into the earthquakes that generated them. Modern deep-learning detectors now routinely identify many more small events than before, providing information about fault dynamics on increasingly fine spatiotemporal scales. But the resulting high-rate arrival sequences are increasingly difficult to associate, especially when local wave speeds are heterogeneous or poorly known. Here we introduce HARPA, a phase-association framework that represents observed and predicted arrival sequences as probability distributions and compares them using an optimal-transport metric. HARPA jointly estimates earthquake locations, origin times and a low-dimensional representation of the wave-speed field using travel-time neural fields, neural networks that map coordinates to travel times. On standard low-rate datasets with simple wave speed, HARPA performs comparably to state-of-the-art associators. At high rates and with laterally heterogeneous or unknown wave speed, HARPA outperforms existing methods. Our results show that adaptive travel-time modeling becomes important when seismicity is dense and suggest a route toward joint association and passive-source tomography from unassociated arrivals. This study introduces HARPA, a high-rate seismic phase association framework based on an optimal-transport metric. It jointly estimates earthquake parameters and wave-speed structure from dense, overlapping arrivals and opens a path to passive-source seismic tomography.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-06-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74092-y
Primary Topic
Seismology and Earthquake Studies
Type
article
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article

High-rate phase association with travel time neural fields

Ivan Dokmanić, Cheng Shi, Giulio Poggiali, Chris Marone et al.
Nature Communications
Seismology and Earthquake Studies
article

High-rate phase association with travel time neural fields

Ivan Dokmanić, Cheng Shi, Giulio Poggiali, Chris Marone, Maarten V. de Hoop
article en

Abstract

Earthquake science and seismology rely on phase association: grouping seismic arrivals recorded across multiple stations into the earthquakes that generated them. Modern deep-learning detectors now routinely identify many more small events than before, providing information about fault dynamics on increasingly fine spatiotemporal scales. But the resulting high-rate arrival sequences are increasingly difficult to associate, especially when local wave speeds are heterogeneous or poorly known. Here we introduce HARPA, a phase-association framework that represents observed and predicted arrival sequences as probability distributions and compares them using an optimal-transport metric. HARPA jointly estimates earthquake locations, origin times and a low-dimensional representation of the wave-speed field using travel-time neural fields, neural networks that map coordinates to travel times. On standard low-rate datasets with simple wave speed, HARPA performs comparably to state-of-the-art associators. At high rates and with laterally heterogeneous or unknown wave speed, HARPA outperforms existing methods. Our results show that adaptive travel-time modeling becomes important when seismicity is dense and suggest a route toward joint association and passive-source tomography from unassociated arrivals. This study introduces HARPA, a high-rate seismic phase association framework based on an optimal-transport metric. It jointly estimates earthquake parameters and wave-speed structure from dense, overlapping arrivals and opens a path to passive-source seismic tomography.

Nature Communications
Pennsylvania State University (US), University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US), University of Basel (CH), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (FR), École Normale Supérieure (BI), Department of Biomedicine Basel (CH), Rice University (US), Sapienza University of Rome (IT)
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Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
Seismology and Earthquake Studies
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