THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD INFLATION AND FOOD INSECURITY IN TÜRKİYE: EVIDENCE FROM GOOGLE TRENDS DATA

This study examines the relationship between food inflation and food insecurity in Türkiye over the period 2013M1–2025M9, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach alongside Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimation methods. Food insecurity through the health channel is proxied by Google search intensity for the term “food poisoning” in Türkiye, where a Search Volume Index closer to 100 indicates higher food insecurity, while a value closer to 0 reflects lower food insecurity. The findings from the ARDL bounds testing approach reveal a positive and statistically significant association between food insecurity (FINSEC) and food inflation (FINF) in long-run. Specifically, a 1 percentage point increase in food inflation is associated with a 0.32-point increase in the food insecurity index. In contrast, unemployment (UNEMP) and economic growth (GROWTH) are not related with food insecurity in the long run. Furthermore, the DOLS and FMOLS estimations yield results largely consistent with those obtained from the ARDL bounds testing approach, confirming the robustness of the findings. Given the significant long-run impact of food inflation on food insecurity, food price stabilization policies should be central to food security strategies in Türkiye.