The Effects of Boron on Energy Security and Environmental Sustainability: The Case of Turkey

The effects of boron exports on energy security and environmental sustainability were analyzed using Fourier-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL), Error Correction Model, and Toda- Yamamoto causality tests. The study consists of two models: Model 1 examines the effect of boron exports on energy import dependency, while Model 2 analyzes the effects of boron exports, economic growth, and the share of renewable energy on carbon emissions. Fourier-based unit root tests indicate that most series are integrated at the I(1) level, and Fourier-ARDL results reveal the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. The findings indicate that the environmental impact of boron exports does not operate through a direct emission-reducing mechanism; rather, it reflects a short-term scale effect associated with increased production and energy demand, which is moderated in the long run by the expansion of renewable energy capacity and technological transformation. An increase in the share of renewable energy contributes to both strengthening energy security and reducing carbon emissions. Although economic growth leads to higher emissions in the short term, the expansion of renewable energy capacity helps to balance this effect over time. Error correction coefficients suggest that equilibrium is restored more rapidly in the energy security model, whereas the adjustment process is slower in the environmental sustainability model. The Toda- Yamamoto causality test does not detect short-run directional causality among the variables, while long-run relationships are supported by the cointegration results obtained from the Fourier-ARDL framework. Overall, the findings suggest that boron is not only a strategic export commodity but also a complementary policy instrument whose contribution to energy security and green transformation depends on its integration with renewable energy and technology-oriented policies.