The Impact of Global Crises on Turkish and EU Ports (2004–2024)

Maritime transportation is a major component of global trade and is highly vulnerable to economic, geopolitical, health, and environmental disruptions. This study examines the effects of major international and regional crises on maritime trade by comparing cargo throughput trends in Turkish and European Union ports between 2004 and 2024. It evaluates the resilience of these port systems by analyzing how port activity responded to external shocks over time. The analysis covers the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis, the Arab Spring in 2011, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Russia–Ukraine War in 2022, and the 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye. Annual cargo throughput data obtained from official Turkish and European sources were combined with the Baltic Dry Index as an indicator of global shipping market conditions. The dataset was processed and analyzed in Python using descriptive statistics, trend analysis, correlation analysis, and regression models with crisis-period dummy variables. The findings indicate a strong positive long-term relationship between cargo throughput trends in Türkiye and the European Union, suggesting that both regions are influenced by global economic cycles. However, their short-term responses to crises differed. Crisis periods were generally associated with lower cargo throughput growth in both regions, although the magnitude and persistence of these effects varied by crisis type and region. The 2023 earthquakes caused substantial operational disruption in Türkiye and highlighted the importance of resilient infrastructure and disaster preparedness. The study also identifies a moderate positive correlation between cargo throughput growth and global freight market conditions. Overall, the findings provide empirical evidence on the vulnerability and resilience of port systems under crisis conditions and improve understanding of how maritime trade responds to major external shocks.