Prabowo’s China Policy and Its Implications for Indonesia–Taiwan Relations

This paper examines how President Prabowo Subianto’s evolving China policy is reshaping Indonesia’s informal relations with Taiwan amid intensifying U.S.–China rivalry. Drawing on neoclassical realism, it argues that Indonesia’s foreign policy is not determined solely by systemic pressures but is filtered through domestic variables such as elite perceptions, historical memory, and institutional constraints. This study shows that Prabowo’s pragmatic strategy of deepening economic and strategic cooperation with Beijing has gradually narrowed Indonesia’s diplomatic space for managing its unofficial ties with Taiwan. While Jakarta continues to uphold the one-China policy, its simultaneous dependence on Chinese investment and functional cooperation with Taiwan reveals a pattern of strategic ambiguity that is characteristic of middle-power diplomacy. By analyzing economic and strategic considerations, geopolitical balancing, regional security dynamics, and historical and domestic factors, this paper demonstrates that Indonesia’s Taiwan policy reflects a complex negotiation between external great-power rivalry and internal legitimacy concerns. The findings suggest that Indonesia’s ability to sustain its long-standing free and active foreign policy is increasingly constrained by asymmetric interdependence with China and the gradual erosion of ASEAN cohesion. Ultimately, this paper contends that Indonesia’s future posture toward Taiwan will depend not only on shifts in regional power configurations but also on Prabowo’s capacity to reconcile domestic political legitimacy with international strategic autonomy. By highlighting the role of domestic filters in shaping foreign policy under conditions of great-power competition, this study contributes to broader debates on middle-power diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific.