From Strategic Shock to Geopolitical Realignment: The Regional and International Implications of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood

This study examines the geopolitical repercussions of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood (7 October 2023) and its impact on regional power dynamics, Israeli deterrence, and the international positioning of the Palestinian question. The research investigates how the operation reshaped diplomatic alignments, influenced Arab-Israeli normalisation trajectories, and contributed to shifts in international legal and political discourse regarding Palestine. Using a descriptive-analytical approach supported by document analysis and comparative geopolitical assessment, the study analyses developments related to international recognition of Palestine, proceedings before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC), transformations in regional alliances, and the evolving perception of Israeli security capabilities following the operation. The findings indicate that Operation Al-Aqsa Flood generated significant geopolitical consequences extending beyond the military dimension. These include increasing international pressure on Israel, the relative erosion of Israeli deterrence, renewed global attention to the Palestinian issue, and a slowdown in normalisation initiatives between the Zionist state and several Arab states. The study also highlights the growing role of non-Western actors and emerging geopolitical blocs in reshaping Middle Eastern power configurations. The research concludes that the operation represents a strategic turning point with long-term geopolitical implications. However, the extent to which these developments may produce sustainable political gains for the Palestinian cause depends on the effectiveness of regional diplomatic, legal, and media strategies.