Do High P/E and EV/EBITDA Stocks Outperform Low-Multiple Stocks? Evidence from Technology, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare Portfolios in the U.S. Market (2018–2022)

This study examines the relationship between valuation multiples and investment performance in the U.S. stock market. Specifically, it tests whether portfolios constructed with high-multiple stocks consistently outperform portfolios with low-multiple stocks. The analysis spans the Technology, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare sectors from 2018 to 2022. A sector-based portfolio construction framework was employed using quarterly portfolio-return data. Quantitative financial modelling, including regression analysis and descriptive statistics, was applied to assess the correlation between portfolio returns and valuation multiples (P/E and EV/EBITDA), while interpreting results within the broader context of market volatility and the COVID-19 period. The results show no statistically significant relationship between valuation multiples and portfolio performance. Low-multiple portfolios demonstrated marginally higher average returns over the period, offering weak support for value-based investment strategies. Results further suggest limited standalone predictive power in high-multiple valuations. Drawing on the Efficient Market Hypothesis, Value Investing, Growth Investing, and the Fama-French Three-Factor Model, this paper empirically tests the impact of valuation multiples within a sector-based portfolio framework. Accordingly, the study adds to the asset pricing literature by offering a structured null-result framework, demonstrating that valuation multiples, when applied in isolation, may not provide sufficiently reliable standalone signals for portfolio performance. The COVID-19 period is interpreted as an economically meaningful contextual regime characterized by elevated volatility, liquidity intervention, and sectoral divergence, rather than as a formally estimated event-study framework.