Spatiotemporal dynamics and coupling coordination between carbon reduction performance and socio-economic development in the Yellow River Basin, China

Achieving coordinated progress between carbon reduction performance (CRP) and so-cio-economic development (SED) remains a critical challenge for low-carbon transitions in regions characterized by heavy industrial dependence and ecological vulnerability. Taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China as a case study, this research examined the spatiotemporal evolution and coupling coordination between CRP and SED across eight provinces from 2013 to 2024. Carbon emissions were estimated using an energy-type accounting approach consistent with the IPCC guidelines, and two multi-dimensional indicator systems were developed to characterize CRP and SED. Composite indices were constructed using an entropy-weighted TOPSIS method, and a coupling coordination model combined with kernel density estimation was applied to evaluate coordination levels and their distributional dynamics. The results reveal that SED improved steadily throughout the study period, whereas CRP exhibited slower progress and notable fluctuations, leading to a gradual but unstable enhancement in overall coordination. Clear spatial differentiation was identified, with persistently higher and more stable coordination in downstream provinces, transitional and volatile patterns in the midstream region, and consistently lower coordination in upstream areas despite incremental improvement. These findings indicate that structural constraints continue to limit the synchronized advancement of CRP and SED in the YRB, highlighting the necessity of regionally differentiated strategies to promote a more stable and balanced low-carbon transition.