Sedimentological reconstruction of hurricane storm surges from a carbonate reef coastline at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

Anegada is a small, low-lying carbonate island in the British Virgin Islands that is highly vulnerable to marine inundation from frequent hurricanes. A major challenge in forecasting the timing, intensity, and impacts of future hurricanes to islands such as Anegada is the limited short-term instrumental record that does not capture the full spectrum of inundation events from the frequent but low-magnitude to rare, but high-magnitude events. Washover deposits, which are transported onshore by hurricane-related storm surges and preserved within the onshore stratigraphy, can provide insight into the recurrence of these events. Here, we use grain size distributions, X-ray fluorescence (XRF) data, and an inverse sediment transport model to characterize a series of anomalous sand deposits from shallow hypersaline ponds to determine the variability in storm surges impacting Anegada over at least the last 70 years. The analyses were successfully applied to modern analogues of storms impacting Anegada's southern shoreline (Hurricanes Donna in 1960 at Category 3; Earl in 2010 at Category 4; and Irma in 2017 at Category 5). These deposits are identified by coarse-grained material and elevated marine geochemical signals (Ca, Sr, ln(Br/Ti)). Inverse modelled flow parameters (average flow depth = 0.89–1.46 m relative to the reef flat, average flow speed = 2.95–3.78 m/s) agree with observational data and eyewitness accounts, and the deposit associated with Hurricane Donna indicates the greatest impacts occurred along the southern shoreline (modelled flow depth = 1.24–1.46 m relative to the reef flat, flow speed = 3.49–3.78 m/s). Using the modern analogues as a basis for comparison, we infer the origin of an older sand deposit to be from Hurricane Dog in 1950, when it tracked by Anegada as a Category 3 storm. This methodology provides a transferable framework for interpreting storm recurrence in carbonate-dominated coastlines worldwide that could be used to inform hurricane hazard assessments and risk management efforts.