The integration of the perception of decision-makers into freight mode choice in Indonesia: evidence from a Hybrid Choice Model

Abstract Indonesia is one of the archipelagic states in the world facing continuous logistics challenges as observed from the domination of inter-island freight movement by road transportation despite its vast maritime potential. The overreliance on land-based logistics has generated severe congestion, accelerated infrastructure deterioration, and elevated transportation costs while maritime transport remains critically underutilized. Therefore, this study aims to investigate freight mode choice behavior by comparing road, Ro-Ro (Roll-On/Roll-Off), and Lo-Lo (Lift-On/Lift-Off) vessels in the Java–Sumatra corridor which is the most congested logistics artery in Indonesia as part of the efforts to improve the role of maritime logistic transport. Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) and Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) methods were adopted to examine the effects of observable attributes (cost, time, frequency) and latent psychological constructs (perceived satisfaction and perceived accessibility). The survey data from 137 freight decision-makers including cargo owners, shippers, receivers, and freight forwarders showed that the incorporation of latent variables significantly improved model fit with adjusted ρ² increasing from 0.31 (MNL) to 0.48 (HCM) as a reflection of 55% enhancement. Critically, perceived satisfaction exerted a strong positive influence on maritime mode choice (β = 0.89 for Ro-Ro, p < 0.01) while perceived accessibility was statistically insignificant. This study contributes to freight mode choice literature by (1) extending HCM application to archipelagic developing country contexts, (2) identifying context-specific latent constructs, and (3) showing boundary conditions for the role of accessibility in freight decisions. The results show the need to formulate maritime policies reallocating resources from infrastructure-centric investments toward service quality improvement programs particularly with a focus on schedule reliability, cargo safety, and port turnaround efficiency to catalyze sustainable modal shift.