Land-use dynamics and future scenarios in China’s Liquor Golden Triangle

Introduction: Land-use change in specialized agro-industrial regions presents a unique “spatial friction” between intense industrial agglomeration (e.g., Baijiu production) and stringent ecological conservation mandates. However, these distinct dynamics remain underrepresented in land system science. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s Baijiu Golden Triangle (BGT) to address this specific industry–agriculture–ecology conflict, aiming to quantify historical driving mechanisms and simulate future trajectories under policy-aligned macroscopic scenarios. Materials and methods: Utilizing 30 m resolution land-use data from 2000 to 2022, Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analysis was employed to characterize historical evolutionary patterns. The Patch-generating Land-Use Simulation (PLUS) model—quantitatively validated with a Kappa coefficient of 0.82 and an overall accuracy of 0.912—was integrated with a Random Forest algorithm to extract underlying biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. Furthermore, a Markov chain model was utilized to project spatial configurations for the 2036 horizon under four context-specific pathways—Natural Development, Economic Development, Ecological Conservation, and Sustainable Development—all strictly parameterized according to current regional statutory plans. Results: Historical analysis revealed a continuous and accelerating expansion of construction land, with its dynamic degree reaching 10.31% annually (2000–2015), profoundly encroaching upon vital cropland. Nighttime light intensity emerged as the primary socioeconomic engine driving this urban-industrial sprawl, whereas elevation and hydrological proximity fundamentally constrained the spatial limits of agricultural and ecological spaces. Multi-scenario projections for 2036 demonstrate that the Economic Development scenario severely exacerbates landscape fragmentation (driving a 99.04% increase in construction land at the severe expense of regional forest ecosystems, which decline by 2.43%), whereas the Sustainable Development scenario achieves an optimal structural equilibrium. Conclusions: The Sustainable Development framework provides the most scientifically robust spatial pathway for mitigating the inherent agro-industrial conflicts in the BGT, strictly aligning with the macro-objectives of the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle Plan and the Chishui River Basin Ecological Protection Plan. By extending land system science into ecologically sensitive agro-industrial zones, these findings offer spatially explicit, data-driven decision support for future territorial spatial planning and regional sustainable governance.