Does agricultural mechanization promote green development? evidence from an entropy-weighted provincial panel in China (2011–2023)

While agricultural mechanization is central to rural transformation in China, its ecological implications remain unclear. This study examines whether mechanization promotes agricultural green development or induces input-intensive ecological trade-offs. Using a balanced panel of 31 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2023, we construct an entropy-weighted Green_Ecology index based on fertilizer, pesticide, and plastic film use, as well as forest coverage. We estimate the relationship between mechanization and Green_Ecology performance with two-way fixed-effects models and conduct robustness checks using dynamic system GMM and a permutation placebo test. Results show that higher mechanization intensity is significantly associated with a lower Green_Ecology score; a one-standard-deviation increase in mechanization corresponds to an approximately 3% decline relative to the sample mean. Decomposition analysis indicates that this negative association is mainly driven by increased use of fertilizer and plastic film. Heterogeneity and threshold analyses suggest that the relationship may vary with forest endowment, although evidence for a sharp forest threshold is not decisive. These findings suggest that green-compatible mechanization should be viewed not merely as machinery expansion but as the integration of input-saving technologies, precision services, and plastic film recycling systems that decouple mechanization from chemical-input intensification.