Algorithm for dynamic transition of seasonal maintenance of fire trucks in the Arctic zone, taking into account climate change

In the Far North, areas equivalent to the Far North, and the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation, fire engine operation is associated with extreme climatic conditions. The current seasonal maintenance system is based on fixed calendar dates, which are based on research dating back to the Soviet era. These dates do not take into account the climate changes observed in recent decades–seasonal shifts and an increase in the frequency of thaws and early frosts. This paper substantiates the need to transition from a static to a dynamic method for planning seasonal maintenance of fire engines in the Far North, areas equivalent to the Far North, and the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation, based on weather forecast data. To this end, an analysis of long-term temperature series (1980–2024) was conducted for five cities located in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation: Murmansk, Naryan-Mar, Salekhard, Norilsk, and Tiksi. The threshold temperature of +5°C, recommended for changing winter and summer motor oils, was chosen. The analysis revealed a consistent shift in the dates when ambient temperatures cross +5°C: 15–20 days earlier in spring and 15–18 days later in autumn, compared to climate norms from the 1980s. It was shown that fixed seasonal maintenance dates do not correspond to actual conditions. A dynamic transition algorithm is proposed that uses forecasts of sustained temperature increases/decreases.