Bayesian information fusion for state estimation in AC/DC networks with unbalanced HVDC grids

This paper proposes a State Estimation (SE) method for AC/DC networks monitored through heterogeneous data sources, based on Bayesian Information Fusion (BIF). The proposed model allows to represent bipolar High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) grids operating in balanced or unbalanced mode. Unbalanced operation of bipolar HVDC grids is a natural consequence of single-pole outages, and may become a relevant operating condition in offshore grids, due to longe repair times. This paper casts Forecasting-Aided State Estimation (FASE) as a generic constrained optimization problem, enabling the straightforward modeling of AC/DC converter operational limits through inequality constraints and the flexible adoption of different SE objectives. Both Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and Weighted Least Absolute Value (WLAV) objectives are employed. Results demonstrate that BIF leverages sparsely available data from synchronized measurements, providing reliable estimates in networks affected by intermittent renewable generation and actions of power electronic converters.

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Publication Details

Journal
Electric Power Systems Research
Published
2026-06-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2026.113630
Primary Topic
HVDC Systems and Fault Protection
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Bayesian information fusion for state estimation in AC/DC networks with unbalanced HVDC grids

Hakan Ergun, Marta Vanin, Vítor Henrique Pereira de Melo, J. London et al.
Electric Power Systems Research
HVDC Systems and Fault Protection
article

Bayesian information fusion for state estimation in AC/DC networks with unbalanced HVDC grids

Hakan Ergun, Marta Vanin, Vítor Henrique Pereira de Melo, J. London, Dirk Van Hertem
article en

Abstract

This paper proposes a State Estimation (SE) method for AC/DC networks monitored through heterogeneous data sources, based on Bayesian Information Fusion (BIF). The proposed model allows to represent bipolar High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) grids operating in balanced or unbalanced mode. Unbalanced operation of bipolar HVDC grids is a natural consequence of single-pole outages, and may become a relevant operating condition in offshore grids, due to longe repair times. This paper casts Forecasting-Aided State Estimation (FASE) as a generic constrained optimization problem, enabling the straightforward modeling of AC/DC converter operational limits through inequality constraints and the flexible adoption of different SE objectives. Both Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and Weighted Least Absolute Value (WLAV) objectives are employed. Results demonstrate that BIF leverages sparsely available data from synchronized measurements, providing reliable estimates in networks affected by intermittent renewable generation and actions of power electronic converters.

Electric Power Systems ResearchVol. 262
Directorate-General for Energy (BE), Institute of Physics (PL), KU Leuven (BE)
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, FP7 Coordination of Research Activities
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 11%
HVDC Systems and Fault Protection
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Bayesian information fusion for state estimation in AC/DC networks with unbalanced HVDC grids — Hakan Ergun, Marta Vanin, et al. · Electric Power Systems Research (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS