Spatial and temporal evolution of disaster resilience across China

In response to escalating frequency and intensity of natural disasters worldwide, enhancing disaster resilience, i.e., the critical capability for effective disaster response and sustainable recovery, has become crucial. With a new disaster resilience assessment framework, this study analyzes the spatial distribution and temporal evolution pattern of the regional disaster resilience based on the data of disaster resilience in 31 regions of China from 2006 to 2023, and adopts the ARIMA model to predict the regional disaster resilience by 2030. Results indicate that China’s progress in national resilience building has substantial overall improvement in regional disaster resilience, but the interregional disparities remain stable. The findings imply that catastrophic events and economic development serve as primary catalysts for disaster resilience improvement; effective resilience-building requires a comprehensive, multi-faceted approach. In conclusion, this study offers valuable insights into how natural hazards, risks, and socioeconomic factors reshape the regional capability for disaster response and recovery, and provides implications particularly for developing nations facing frequent natural disasters and having difficulties in building disaster resilience.