Managing Exposure: China’s Foreign Policy Adaptation to Overseas Conflict Risks

China’s global economic expansion has resulted in a major foothold in conflict-prone regions. This exposure drives an increasingly active approach to risk mitigation and asset protection, and a gradual shift in Chinese security policy towards more interventionist measures. Yet how these risks are assessed in China, and what role they play in shaping its global security agency, remains understudied. This paper traces Chinese discourses on overseas conflict risk management and resulting policy shifts. It examines how Chinese sources describe the problem, rate risks across distinct environments, and propose measures to improve risk management and asset protection. It argues that outcomes like the Global Security Initiative are best understood as adaptations to these risks, revealing clues about China’s emergence as a global security provider.