On the development and implementation of a decision-making methodology for managing structural units of crisis management centers

The article presents the development and practical testing of a methodology for managerial decision-making in on-duty shifts at crisis management centers of EMERCOM of Russia. The relevance of the study is driven by the increasing operational load on crisis management centers due to the growing complexity of natural and man-made emergencies, as well as the rising volume of routine tasks requiring immediate response. The aim of this work was to enhance the effectiveness of managing structural units within crisis management centers by formalizing assessment, forecasting, and selection of management actions. The article provides a brief description of the developed methodology, which includes three stages: formalization of the units' state, modeling its dynamics, and decision-making. Improved mathematical formulas for optimizing resource allocation and estimating decision utility are presented. Pilot implementation of the methodology in regional crisis management centers demonstrated statistically significant improvements in performance indicators. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the creation of an original model describing the state of structural units within crisis management centers and its integration into a unified decision support system algorithm. The theoretical significance of the research consists in advancing the methodological framework for management under uncertainty, while its practical value is confirmed by the proven effectiveness of the methodology under real operational conditions.