Advancing Sustainable Development Goal 8 in ASEAN: how institutions shape the payoff of national intellectual capital for green growth

Purpose This study aims to examine whether institutional quality moderates the relationship between national intellectual capital and green economic growth. Design/methodology/approach Using annual data for seven ASEAN economies over 2000–2023, the authors use country-specific autoregressive distributed lag models with an error-correction representation to identify long-run cointegrating relationships and short-run adjustments among green economic growth, national intellectual capital, institutional quality and their interaction. Findings The authors compute long-run marginal effects of national intellectual capital at observed levels of institutional quality and identify institutional thresholds at which the effect changes sign. The results indicate systematic, but country-specific, moderation. Brunei, Thailand and Vietnam exhibit stronger contributions of national intellectual capital as institutional quality improves. In Brunei and Vietnam, the marginal effect shifts from negative at low levels of institutional quality to positive at higher levels. Indonesia shows a positive marginal effect across the full range of institutional quality, with only modest attenuation as institutional quality rises. Practical implications The authors’ findings imply that progress toward SDG 8 in ASEAN requires aligning institutional reforms with investments in human capital, research and development, intellectual property services and digital infrastructure, so that knowledge-based capabilities translate into more sustainable productivity and employment. Originality/value This study contributes to the green growth literature by focusing on national intellectual capital as a broad intangible asset base and by providing country-level evidence that its effect on green economic growth depends on institutional quality