The Effect of Field Line Tracing Height on Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge Solar Wind Predictions at Earth

Abstract A key component of the widely used Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge model is the tracing of magnetic field lines in the solar corona, as that largely determines the modeled open/closed field regions and in turn the predicted large‐scale solar wind structure. However, small closed field regions interspersed among the open field lines inside coronal holes (CHs) often hinder determination of the large‐scale open–closed boundary. Since most of this small closed flux inside CHs is confined to low heights, we demonstrate that by slightly raising the height from which magnetic field lines are traced from the photosphere (), we can improve the prediction of solar wind high‐speed enhancements (HSEs). We find a higher produces more accurate estimates of the HSE start time, duration, and peak speed, and enables the detection of HSEs that were missed with the standard . These improvements are primarily associated with changes in the great‐circle angular distance, while the flux tube expansion factors remain largely unchanged. A higher produces smoother open‐field boundaries and reduces small‐scale fragmentation within open‐field regions. These morphological changes lead to more stable magnetic footpoint mappings and consequently more robust GCD calculations. To assess the statistical relevance of these findings, we extend the analysis to 53 Carrington rotations and perform a multi‐metric evaluation of model performance. The results indicate that higher improves HSE predictions while reducing false alarms. We thus find that the choice of represents an important and previously underexplored parameter that can help enhance our ambient solar wind modeling and forecasting capabilities.

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Publication Details

Journal
Space Weather
Published
2026-11-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026sw005275
Primary Topic
Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

The Effect of Field Line Tracing Height on Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge Solar Wind Predictions at Earth

Charles Nickolos Arge, Pete Riley, Martin Reiß, Satabdwa Majumdar
2 links
Space Weather
Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
article

The Effect of Field Line Tracing Height on Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge Solar Wind Predictions at Earth

Charles Nickolos Arge, Pete Riley, Martin Reiß, Satabdwa Majumdar
article en

Abstract

Abstract A key component of the widely used Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge model is the tracing of magnetic field lines in the solar corona, as that largely determines the modeled open/closed field regions and in turn the predicted large‐scale solar wind structure. However, small closed field regions interspersed among the open field lines inside coronal holes (CHs) often hinder determination of the large‐scale open–closed boundary. Since most of this small closed flux inside CHs is confined to low heights, we demonstrate that by slightly raising the height from which magnetic field lines are traced from the photosphere (), we can improve the prediction of solar wind high‐speed enhancements (HSEs). We find a higher produces more accurate estimates of the HSE start time, duration, and peak speed, and enables the detection of HSEs that were missed with the standard . These improvements are primarily associated with changes in the great‐circle angular distance, while the flux tube expansion factors remain largely unchanged. A higher produces smoother open‐field boundaries and reduces small‐scale fragmentation within open‐field regions. These morphological changes lead to more stable magnetic footpoint mappings and consequently more robust GCD calculations. To assess the statistical relevance of these findings, we extend the analysis to 53 Carrington rotations and perform a multi‐metric evaluation of model performance. The results indicate that higher improves HSE predictions while reducing false alarms. We thus find that the choice of represents an important and previously underexplored parameter that can help enhance our ambient solar wind modeling and forecasting capabilities.

Space WeatherVol. 24(11)
Goddard Space Flight Center (US), Universities Space Research Association (US), Predictive Science (United States) (US), Community Coordinated Modeling Center (US), GeoSphere Austria (AT)
National Science Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Openalex Percentile: Top 52%
Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
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